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ATK Mohun Bagan vs Bengaluru — Indian Super League 2019

ATK Mohun Bagan
ATK Mohun Baganadvanced
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bengaluru
Bengaluru
4/12/2025Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Championship - FinalVivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

ATK Mohun Bagan49%
×Draw25%
Bengaluru26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ATK Mohun Bagan
1.59
Bengaluru
1.08

ATK Mohun Bagan creates 47% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 72 away

creates per match

ATK Mohun Bagan
1.82
Bengaluru
1.28

allows per match

ATK Mohun Bagan
0.88
Bengaluru
1.36

finishing

ATK Mohun Bagan+0.00on par
Bengaluru+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ATK Mohun Bagan ↓

Bengaluru →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

ATK Mohun Bagan or draw
74%
ATK Mohun Bagan or Bengaluru
75%
Draw or Bengaluru
51%

Winning margin

ATK Mohun Bagan wins by 2+
25%
Bengaluru wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

ATK Mohun Bagan 1+ goals
80%
ATK Mohun Bagan 2+ goals
47%
ATK Mohun Bagan 3+ goals
21%
Bengaluru 1+ goals
66%
Bengaluru 2+ goals
29%
Bengaluru 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

ATK Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)
66%
Bengaluru (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ATK Mohun Bagan at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.88 · 68 matches

Bengaluru away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.36 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ATK Mohun Bagan attack 1.82 + Bengaluru defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.59

Bengaluru attack 1.28 + ATK Mohun Bagan defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

ATK Mohun Bagan scores more
49%
level
25%
Bengaluru scores more
26%

ATK Mohun Bagan at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "ATK Mohun Bagan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ATK Mohun Bagan vs Bengaluru

ATK Mohun Bagan and Bengaluru drew 1-1 in Indian Super League on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan Stadium in Kolkata.