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Bengaluru vs ATK — Indian Super League 2019

Bengaluru
Bengaluruadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
ATK
ATK
3/1/2020Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Championship - Semi-finalsSree Kanteerava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Bengaluru34%
×Draw27%
ATK39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bengaluru
1.18
ATK
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 10 away

creates per match

Bengaluru
1.46
ATK
1.50

allows per match

Bengaluru
1.06
ATK
0.90

finishing

Bengaluru+0.00on par
ATK+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bengaluru ↓

ATK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bengaluru or draw
61%
Bengaluru or ATK
73%
Draw or ATK
66%

Winning margin

Bengaluru wins by 2+
14%
ATK wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bengaluru 1+ goals
69%
Bengaluru 2+ goals
33%
Bengaluru 3+ goals
12%
ATK 1+ goals
72%
ATK 2+ goals
37%
ATK 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bengaluru (draw refunded)
47%
ATK (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bengaluru at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.06 · 71 matches

ATK away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bengaluru attack 1.46 + ATK defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.18

ATK attack 1.50 + Bengaluru defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bengaluru scores more
34%
level
27%
ATK scores more
39%

ATK at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "ATK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bengaluru 1 – 0 ATK

Bengaluru beat ATK 1-0 in Indian Super League on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Sree Kanteerava Stadium in Bangalore.