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ATK vs Bengaluru — Indian Super League 2019

ATK
ATKadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bengaluru
Bengaluru
3/8/2020Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Championship - Semi-finalsSalt Lake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

ATK53%
×Draw23%
Bengaluru23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ATK
1.77
Bengaluru
1.09

ATK creates 62% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 72 away

creates per match

ATK
2.18
Bengaluru
1.28

allows per match

ATK
0.91
Bengaluru
1.36

finishing

ATK+0.00on par
Bengaluru+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ATK ↓

Bengaluru →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

ATK or draw
77%
ATK or Bengaluru
77%
Draw or Bengaluru
47%

Winning margin

ATK wins by 2+
30%
Bengaluru wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

ATK 1+ goals
83%
ATK 2+ goals
53%
ATK 3+ goals
26%
Bengaluru 1+ goals
66%
Bengaluru 2+ goals
30%
Bengaluru 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

ATK (draw refunded)
69%
Bengaluru (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ATK at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Bengaluru away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.36 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ATK attack 2.18 + Bengaluru defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.77

Bengaluru attack 1.28 + ATK defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

ATK scores more
53%
level
23%
Bengaluru scores more
23%

ATK at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "ATK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ATK vs Bengaluru

ATK beat Bengaluru 3-1 in Indian Super League on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at Salt Lake Stadium in Kolkata.