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Bengaluru vs Aizawl — AFC Cup 2018

Bengaluru
Bengaluru
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Aizawl
Aizawl
5/2/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Sree Kanteerava Stadium (Bangalore)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bengaluru86%
×Draw10%
Aizawl4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bengaluru
3.10
Aizawl
0.54

Bengaluru creates 474% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

Bengaluru
3.20
Aizawl
0.67

allows per match

Bengaluru
0.40
Aizawl
3.00

finishing

Bengaluru+0.00on par
Aizawl+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bengaluru ↓

Aizawl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (14%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Bengaluru or draw
96%
Bengaluru or Aizawl
90%
Draw or Aizawl
14%

Winning margin

Bengaluru wins by 2+
69%
Aizawl wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Bengaluru 1+ goals
95%
Bengaluru 2+ goals
81%
Bengaluru 3+ goals
58%
Aizawl 1+ goals
42%
Aizawl 2+ goals
10%
Aizawl 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Bengaluru (draw refunded)
96%
Aizawl (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bengaluru at home — creates 3.20, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

Aizawl away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bengaluru attack 3.20 + Aizawl defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.10

Aizawl attack 0.67 + Bengaluru defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Bengaluru scores more
86%
level
10%
Aizawl scores more
4%

Bengaluru at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Bengaluru will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Bengaluru 5–0 Aizawl

Bengaluru beat Aizawl 5-0 in AFC Cup on May 2, 2018.

The match was played at Sree Kanteerava Stadium (Bangalore).