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Aizawl vs Bengaluru — AFC Cup 2018

Aizawl
Aizawl
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Bengaluru
Bengaluru
4/5/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 1Indira Gandhi Athletic Stadium (Guwahati)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Aizawl21%
×Draw21%
Bengaluru58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aizawl
1.15
Bengaluru
2.06

Bengaluru creates 79% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

creates per match

Aizawl
1.00
Bengaluru
1.80

allows per match

Aizawl
2.33
Bengaluru
1.30

finishing

Aizawl+0.00on par
Bengaluru+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aizawl ↓

Bengaluru →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Aizawl or draw
42%
Aizawl or Bengaluru
79%
Draw or Bengaluru
79%

Winning margin

Aizawl wins by 2+
8%
Bengaluru wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Aizawl 1+ goals
68%
Aizawl 2+ goals
32%
Aizawl 3+ goals
11%
Bengaluru 1+ goals
87%
Bengaluru 2+ goals
61%
Bengaluru 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Aizawl (draw refunded)
26%
Bengaluru (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aizawl at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Bengaluru away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aizawl attack 1.00 + Bengaluru defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Bengaluru attack 1.80 + Aizawl defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Aizawl scores more
21%
level
21%
Bengaluru scores more
58%

Bengaluru at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bengaluru will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Aizawl 1–3 Bengaluru

Bengaluru beat Aizawl 3-1 in AFC Cup on April 5, 2018.

The match was played at Indira Gandhi Athletic Stadium (Guwahati).