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Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Benfica 45%Draw 23%32% Real
1.77Expected xG1.48

Over / Under 2.5

63%

Over

37%

Under

Both Score

64%

Yes

36%

No

Most Likely Scores

1-1

10%

2-1

9%

1-2

8%

xG Profile (5 home / 7 away matches)

Benfica

xG 1.77 · xGA 1.06

-0.17 vs xG

Real Madrid

xG 1.89 · xGA 1.76

+0.54 vs xG

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Benfica vs Real Madrid — UEFA Champions League 2026

UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League·2026📍Estádio da Luz
Benfica
Benfica
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
A. Trubin 90'
A. Schjelderup 54', 36'
V. Pavlidis 45' (pen)
K. Mbappe 58', 30'
Date
Jan 28, 2026, 8:00 PM
Tournament
UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 8
Referee
D. Massa
Venue
Estádio da Luz, Lisbon

Season form

Both teams' recent trends — not a prediction for this match.

Benfica

Over / Under 2.5

59%over 2.5
  • Over 2.54159%
  • Under 2.52841%

Both teams scored

52%BTTS
  • Yes3652%
  • No3348%

Real Madrid

Over / Under 2.5

64%over 2.5
  • Over 2.57264%
  • Under 2.54136%

Both teams scored

57%BTTS
  • Yes6457%
  • No4943%

Match Events

3'
Aurélien Tchouaméni
10'
Leandro Barreiro
17'
Gianluca PrestianniPenalty cancelled
30'
K. Mbappe↳ R. Asencio
36'
A. Schjelderup↳ V. Pavlidis
45+4'
Raúl Asencio
45'
V. PavlidisPenalty
54'
A. Schjelderup↳ V. Pavlidis
55'
E. Camavinga← A. Tchouameni
55'
Rodrygo← F. Mastantuono
58'
K. Mbappe↳ A. Guler
62'
Dean Huijsen
66'
Álvaro Carreras
79'
D. Alaba← D. Huijsen
79'
B. Diaz← A. Carreras
79'
J. Cestero Sancho← A. Guler
83'
E. Barrenechea← G. Sudakov
85'
Samuel Dahl
87'
J. Rego← G. Prestianni
90+6'
Rodrygo
90+6'
Rodrygo
90+2'
Raúl Asencio
90+6'
Rodrygo
90+2'
Raúl Asencio
90+3'
A. Silva← A. Schjelderup
90+3'
F. Ivanovic← V. Pavlidis
90'
A. Trubin↳ F. Aursnes

Possession

33%Benfica

Shots

22Benfica

Pass accuracy

46%Benfica

Statistics

BenficaReal
Overview
33%Possession67%
22Total Shots16
3.14Expected Goals (xG)1.50
6Corners5
11Fouls15
Shots
22Total Shots16
12On Target6
3Off Target5
7Blocked5
20Inside Box12
2Outside Box4
Passing
33%Possession67%
294Total Passes610
227Accurate Passes553
77%Pass Accuracy91%
Goalkeeping
4Saves7
-1.59Goals Prevented-1.59
Discipline
11Fouls15
2Yellow Cards7
0Red Cards2
1Offsides0

UEFA Champions League: Benfica 4–2 Real Madrid

Benfica beat Real Madrid 4-2 in UEFA Champions League on January 28, 2026.

Goals: K. Mbappe (30', 58'), A. Schjelderup (36', 54'), V. Pavlidis (45' pen), A. Trubin (90').

Real Madrid controlled possession (67%) and registered 16 shots to 22.

The match was played at Estádio da Luz in Lisbon.