Benfica 2–0 Belenenses: Result & Stats

Benfica

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Belenenses

10/26/2020

Primeira Liga · Round 5Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Benfica67%

×Draw20%

Belenenses13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BenficaExpected goals in this matchBelenenses

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.74

Benfica

2.02

Belenenses

0.74

Benfica creates 173% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 68 away

2.63

creates per match

0.72

0.77

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Benfica

2.63

Belenenses

0.72

allows per match

Benfica

0.77

Belenenses

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benfica+0.00on par

Belenenses+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

Belenenses →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Benfica or draw

87%

Benfica or Belenenses

80%

Draw or Belenenses

33%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+

42%

Belenenses wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals

87%

Benfica 2+ goals

60%

Benfica 3+ goals

33%

Belenenses 1+ goals

52%

Belenenses 2+ goals

17%

Belenenses 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)

84%

Belenenses (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.77 · 136 matches

Belenenses away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.41 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 2.63 + Belenenses defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 2.02

Belenenses attack 0.72 + Benfica defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Benfica scores more

67%

level

20%

Belenenses scores more

13%

Benfica at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff