Belenenses 0–3 Benfica: Result & Stats

Belenenses

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Benfica

3/8/2021

Primeira Liga · Round 22Estádio Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Belenenses19%

×Draw23%

Benfica57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BelenensesExpected goals in this matchBenfica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.76

Belenenses

0.91

Benfica

1.76

Benfica creates 93% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 136 away

1.00

creates per match

2.07

1.46

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Belenenses

1.00

Benfica

2.07

allows per match

Belenenses

1.46

Benfica

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belenenses+0.00on par

Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belenenses ↓

Benfica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–211%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Belenenses or draw

43%

Belenenses or Benfica

77%

Draw or Benfica

81%

Winning margin

Belenenses wins by 2+

6%

Benfica wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Belenenses 1+ goals

60%

Belenenses 2+ goals

23%

Belenenses 3+ goals

6%

Benfica 1+ goals

83%

Benfica 2+ goals

52%

Benfica 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Belenenses (draw refunded)

25%

Benfica (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belenenses at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.46 · 68 matches

Benfica away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.81 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belenenses attack 1.00 + Benfica defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.91

Benfica attack 2.07 + Belenenses defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Belenenses scores more

19%

level

23%

Benfica scores more

57%

Benfica at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff