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Benfica vs April 25 — AFC Cup 2018

Benfica
Benfica
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
April 25
April 25
4/25/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 4Macau Olympic Complex Stadium (Taipa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Benfica32%
×Draw23%
April 2545%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica
1.50
April 25
1.81

April 25 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

creates per match

Benfica
2.00
April 25
2.30

allows per match

Benfica
1.33
April 25
1.00

finishing

Benfica+0.00on par
April 25+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

April 25 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Benfica or draw
55%
Benfica or April 25
77%
Draw or April 25
68%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+
15%
April 25 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals
78%
Benfica 2+ goals
44%
Benfica 3+ goals
19%
April 25 1+ goals
84%
April 25 2+ goals
54%
April 25 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)
42%
April 25 (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

April 25 away — creates 2.30, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 2.00 + April 25 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

April 25 attack 2.30 + Benfica defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Benfica scores more
32%
level
23%
April 25 scores more
45%

April 25 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "April 25 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benfica vs April 25

April 25 beat Benfica 2-0 in AFC Cup on April 25, 2018.

The match was played at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium (Taipa).