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April 25 vs Benfica — AFC Cup 2018

April 25
April 25
FT
8 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Benfica
Benfica
4/11/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Rŭngrado May First Stadium (P'yŏngyang (Pyongyang))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

April 2576%
×Draw13%
Benfica11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

April 25
3.56
Benfica
1.39

April 25 creates 156% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

April 25
3.45
Benfica
2.33

allows per match

April 25
0.45
Benfica
3.67

finishing

April 25+0.00on par
Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

April 25 ↓

Benfica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

April 25 or draw
89%
April 25 or Benfica
87%
Draw or Benfica
24%

Winning margin

April 25 wins by 2+
58%
Benfica wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

April 25 1+ goals
97%
April 25 2+ goals
86%
April 25 3+ goals
67%
Benfica 1+ goals
75%
Benfica 2+ goals
40%
Benfica 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

April 25 (draw refunded)
87%
Benfica (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

April 25 at home — creates 3.45, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Benfica away — creates 2.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

April 25 attack 3.45 + Benfica defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.56

Benfica attack 2.33 + April 25 defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

April 25 scores more
76%
level
13%
Benfica scores more
11%

April 25 at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "April 25 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: April 25 vs Benfica

April 25 beat Benfica 8-0 in AFC Cup on April 11, 2018.

The match was played at Rŭngrado May First Stadium (P'yŏngyang (Pyongyang)).