Benfica Castelo Branco vs União de Leiria — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 11+ matches
Benfica Castelo Branco29%
União de Leiria44%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
União de Leiria creates 30% more chances
Season form · 11 home / 11 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under57
- Over43
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Benfica Castelo Branco ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Benfica Castelo Branco at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches
União de Leiria away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Benfica Castelo Branco attack 1.55 + União de Leiria defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 1.05
União de Leiria attack 2.00 + Benfica Castelo Branco defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.36
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
União de Leiria at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
União de Leiria
Oliveira HospitalBenfica Castelo Branco
Condeixa
Marinhense
Oleiros
Vitória de Sernache
Sertanense
Carapinheirense
Alcains
Mortágua
GRAPIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Benfica Castelo Branco host União de Leiria on Sunday, 4 October 2020 at 14:00. The match is part of the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020/2021 season.
Benfica Castelo Branco 1 – 0 União de Leiria
Benfica Castelo Branco beat União de Leiria 1-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E on October 4, 2020.
Goals: I. Coulibaly (39').
The match was played at Estádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro in Castelo Branco.