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Benfica Castelo Branco vs União de Leiria — Taça de Portugal 2018

Benfica Castelo Branco
Benfica Castelo Branco
FT
1 – 2
União de Leiria
União de Leiria
9/9/2018Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro (Castelo Branco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Benfica Castelo Branco36%
×Draw21%
União de Leiria42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica Castelo Branco
1.84
União de Leiria
2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

Benfica Castelo Branco
3.00
União de Leiria
2.85

allows per match

Benfica Castelo Branco
1.14
União de Leiria
0.69

finishing

Benfica Castelo Branco+0.00on par
União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica Castelo Branco ↓

União de Leiria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Benfica Castelo Branco or draw
58%
Benfica Castelo Branco or União de Leiria
79%
Draw or União de Leiria
64%

Winning margin

Benfica Castelo Branco wins by 2+
19%
União de Leiria wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Benfica Castelo Branco 1+ goals
84%
Benfica Castelo Branco 2+ goals
55%
Benfica Castelo Branco 3+ goals
28%
União de Leiria 1+ goals
86%
União de Leiria 2+ goals
59%
União de Leiria 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Benfica Castelo Branco (draw refunded)
46%
União de Leiria (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica Castelo Branco at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 2.85, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica Castelo Branco attack 3.00 + União de Leiria defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.84

União de Leiria attack 2.85 + Benfica Castelo Branco defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Benfica Castelo Branco scores more
36%
level
21%
União de Leiria scores more
42%

União de Leiria at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Benfica Castelo Branco 1 – 2 União de Leiria

União de Leiria beat Benfica Castelo Branco 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on September 9, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro (Castelo Branco).