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Benfica Castelo Branco vs União de Leiria — Taça de Portugal 2018

Benfica Castelo Branco
Benfica Castelo Branco
FT
0 – 2
União de Leiria
União de Leiria
9/24/2017Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro (Castelo Branco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Benfica Castelo Branco32%
×Draw22%
União de Leiria47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica Castelo Branco
1.64
União de Leiria
2.02

União de Leiria creates 23% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

creates per match

Benfica Castelo Branco
2.63
União de Leiria
2.79

allows per match

Benfica Castelo Branco
1.25
União de Leiria
0.64

finishing

Benfica Castelo Branco+0.00on par
União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica Castelo Branco ↓

União de Leiria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Benfica Castelo Branco or draw
53%
Benfica Castelo Branco or União de Leiria
78%
Draw or União de Leiria
68%

Winning margin

Benfica Castelo Branco wins by 2+
15%
União de Leiria wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Benfica Castelo Branco 1+ goals
81%
Benfica Castelo Branco 2+ goals
49%
Benfica Castelo Branco 3+ goals
23%
União de Leiria 1+ goals
87%
União de Leiria 2+ goals
60%
União de Leiria 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Benfica Castelo Branco (draw refunded)
40%
União de Leiria (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica Castelo Branco at home — creates 2.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 2.79, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica Castelo Branco attack 2.63 + União de Leiria defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.64

União de Leiria attack 2.79 + Benfica Castelo Branco defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Benfica Castelo Branco scores more
32%
level
22%
União de Leiria scores more
47%

União de Leiria at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Benfica Castelo Branco 0–2 União de Leiria

União de Leiria beat Benfica Castelo Branco 2-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 24, 2017.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro (Castelo Branco).