Benátky nad Jizerou 3–0 Letohrad: Result & Stats

Benátky nad Jizerou

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Letohrad

3/12/2023

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 17Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Benátky nad Jizerou66%

×Draw19%

Letohrad16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Benátky nad JizerouExpected goals in this matchLetohrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.02

Benátky nad Jizerou

2.29

Letohrad

1.02

Benátky nad Jizerou creates 125% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 53 away

2.40

creates per match

1.19

0.85

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Benátky nad Jizerou

2.40

Letohrad

1.19

allows per match

Benátky nad Jizerou

0.85

Letohrad

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benátky nad Jizerou+0.00on par

Letohrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benátky nad Jizerou ↓

Letohrad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Benátky nad Jizerou or draw

84%

Benátky nad Jizerou or Letohrad

81%

Draw or Letohrad

34%

Winning margin

Benátky nad Jizerou wins by 2+

43%

Letohrad wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Benátky nad Jizerou 1+ goals

90%

Benátky nad Jizerou 2+ goals

66%

Benátky nad Jizerou 3+ goals

40%

Letohrad 1+ goals

64%

Letohrad 2+ goals

27%

Letohrad 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Benátky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)

81%

Letohrad (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benátky nad Jizerou at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.85 · 55 matches

Letohrad away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.17 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benátky nad Jizerou attack 2.40 + Letohrad defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.29

Letohrad attack 1.19 + Benátky nad Jizerou defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Benátky nad Jizerou scores more

66%

level

19%

Letohrad scores more

16%

Benátky nad Jizerou at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Benátky nad Jizerou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benátky nad Jizerou vs Letohrad

Benátky nad Jizerou beat Letohrad 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Městský stadion in Benátky nad Jizerou.

Benátky nad Jizerou vs Letohrad — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Benátky nad Jizerou vs Letohrad