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Bembibre vs Becerril Campos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Bembibre
Bembibre
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Becerril Campos
Becerril Campos
5/2/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 33Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Bembibre42%
×Draw28%
Becerril Campos31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bembibre
1.31
Becerril Campos
1.08

Bembibre creates 21% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 97 away

creates per match

Bembibre
1.05
Becerril Campos
1.02

allows per match

Bembibre
1.15
Becerril Campos
1.58

finishing

Bembibre+0.00on par
Becerril Campos+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bembibre ↓

Becerril Campos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bembibre or draw
69%
Bembibre or Becerril Campos
72%
Draw or Becerril Campos
58%

Winning margin

Bembibre wins by 2+
19%
Becerril Campos wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bembibre 1+ goals
73%
Bembibre 2+ goals
38%
Bembibre 3+ goals
14%
Becerril Campos 1+ goals
66%
Becerril Campos 2+ goals
29%
Becerril Campos 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bembibre (draw refunded)
58%
Becerril Campos (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bembibre at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.15 · 110 matches

Becerril Campos away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.58 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bembibre attack 1.05 + Becerril Campos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.31

Becerril Campos attack 1.02 + Bembibre defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bembibre scores more
42%
level
28%
Becerril Campos scores more
31%

Bembibre at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bembibre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Bembibre 4–1 Becerril Campos

Bembibre beat Becerril Campos 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on May 2, 2026.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1 in Bembibre.