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Becerril Campos vs Bembibre — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Becerril Campos
Becerril Campos
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bembibre
Bembibre
5/11/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 38Estadio Mariano Haro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Becerril Campos43%
×Draw28%
Bembibre30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Becerril Campos
1.31
Bembibre
1.04

Becerril Campos creates 26% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 110 away

creates per match

Becerril Campos
1.11
Bembibre
0.82

allows per match

Becerril Campos
1.26
Bembibre
1.51

finishing

Becerril Campos+0.00on par
Bembibre+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Becerril Campos ↓

Bembibre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Becerril Campos or draw
70%
Becerril Campos or Bembibre
72%
Draw or Bembibre
57%

Winning margin

Becerril Campos wins by 2+
20%
Bembibre wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Becerril Campos 1+ goals
73%
Becerril Campos 2+ goals
38%
Becerril Campos 3+ goals
14%
Bembibre 1+ goals
65%
Bembibre 2+ goals
28%
Bembibre 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Becerril Campos (draw refunded)
59%
Bembibre (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Becerril Campos at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 97 matches

Bembibre away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.51 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Becerril Campos attack 1.11 + Bembibre defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bembibre attack 0.82 + Becerril Campos defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Becerril Campos scores more
43%
level
28%
Bembibre scores more
30%

Becerril Campos at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Becerril Campos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Becerril Campos 1–0 Bembibre

Becerril Campos beat Bembibre 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Mariano Haro in Becerril de Campos.