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Bembibre vs Atlético Tordesillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Bembibre
Bembibre
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Atlético Tordesillas
Atlético Tordesillas
3/31/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 27Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Bembibre33%
×Draw29%
Atlético Tordesillas37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bembibre
1.06
Atlético Tordesillas
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 110 away

creates per match

Bembibre
1.05
Atlético Tordesillas
1.13

allows per match

Bembibre
1.15
Atlético Tordesillas
1.07

finishing

Bembibre+0.00on par
Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bembibre ↓

Atlético Tordesillas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bembibre or draw
63%
Bembibre or Atlético Tordesillas
71%
Draw or Atlético Tordesillas
67%

Winning margin

Bembibre wins by 2+
13%
Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bembibre 1+ goals
65%
Bembibre 2+ goals
29%
Bembibre 3+ goals
9%
Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals
68%
Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals
32%
Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bembibre (draw refunded)
47%
Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bembibre at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.15 · 110 matches

Atlético Tordesillas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bembibre attack 1.05 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.13 + Bembibre defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bembibre scores more
33%
level
29%
Atlético Tordesillas scores more
37%

Atlético Tordesillas at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atlético Tordesillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bembibre vs Atlético Tordesillas

Bembibre beat Atlético Tordesillas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on March 31, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1 in Bembibre.