Atlético Tordesillas 4–1 Bembibre: Result & Stats

Atlético Tordesillas

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Bembibre

3/21/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 27Estadio Las Salinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Atlético Tordesillas54%

×Draw27%

Bembibre19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético TordesillasExpected goals in this matchBembibre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.75

Atlético Tordesillas

1.46

Bembibre

0.75

Atlético Tordesillas creates 95% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 110 away

1.41

creates per match

0.82

0.69

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Atlético Tordesillas

1.41

Bembibre

0.82

allows per match

Atlético Tordesillas

0.69

Bembibre

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par

Bembibre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tordesillas ↓

Bembibre →

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Atlético Tordesillas or draw

81%

Atlético Tordesillas or Bembibre

73%

Draw or Bembibre

46%

Winning margin

Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+

27%

Bembibre wins by 2+

Team goals

Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals

77%

Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals

43%

Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals

18%

Bembibre 1+ goals

53%

Bembibre 2+ goals

17%

Bembibre 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)

74%

Bembibre (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tordesillas at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.69 · 110 matches

Bembibre away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.51 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.41 + Bembibre defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.46

Bembibre attack 0.82 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atlético Tordesillas scores more

54%

level

27%

Bembibre scores more

19%

Atlético Tordesillas at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Atlético Tordesillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff