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Beluša vs Slovan Duslo Šaľa — 3. liga - West 2020

Beluša
Beluša
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
6/8/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 30Štadión TJ Kovo Beluša

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Beluša52%
×Draw23%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beluša
1.84
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.19

Beluša creates 55% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 85 away

creates per match

Beluša
1.98
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.31

allows per match

Beluša
1.06
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.71

finishing

Beluša+0.00on par
Slovan Duslo Šaľa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beluša ↓

Slovan Duslo Šaľa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Beluša or draw
75%
Beluša or Slovan Duslo Šaľa
77%
Draw or Slovan Duslo Šaľa
48%

Winning margin

Beluša wins by 2+
29%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Beluša 1+ goals
84%
Beluša 2+ goals
55%
Beluša 3+ goals
28%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 1+ goals
70%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 2+ goals
33%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Beluša (draw refunded)
68%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beluša at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.06 · 85 matches

Slovan Duslo Šaľa away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.71 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beluša attack 1.98 + Slovan Duslo Šaľa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.84

Slovan Duslo Šaľa attack 1.31 + Beluša defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Beluša scores more
52%
level
23%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa scores more
25%

Beluša at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Beluša will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beluša vs Slovan Duslo Šaľa

Beluša and Slovan Duslo Šaľa drew 0-0 in 3. liga - West on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Štadión TJ Kovo Beluša in Beluša.