Beluša 1–2 Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom: Result & Stats

Beluša

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

8/20/2023

3. liga - West · West - 3Štadión TJ Kovo Beluša

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Beluša54%

×Draw24%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BelušaExpected goals in this matchBaník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.98

Beluša

1.70

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

0.98

Beluša creates 73% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 31 away

1.98

creates per match

0.90

1.06

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Beluša

1.98

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

0.90

allows per match

Beluša

1.06

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beluša+0.00on par

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beluša ↓

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Beluša or draw

78%

Beluša or Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

76%

Draw or Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

46%

Winning margin

Beluša wins by 2+

30%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Beluša 1+ goals

82%

Beluša 2+ goals

51%

Beluša 3+ goals

24%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 1+ goals

62%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 2+ goals

26%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Beluša (draw refunded)

71%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beluša at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.06 · 85 matches

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beluša attack 1.98 + Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.70

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom attack 0.90 + Beluša defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Beluša scores more

54%

level

24%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom scores more

22%

Beluša at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Beluša will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff