Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 2–3 Beluša: Result & Stats

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

FT

2 – 3

Beluša

3/16/2024

3. liga - West · West - 18Futbalový štadión OFK Baník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom48%

×Draw25%

Beluša28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník Lehota p.VtáčnikomExpected goals in this matchBeluša

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.17

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

1.61

Beluša

1.17

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom creates 38% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 84 away

1.97

creates per match

1.60

0.74

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

1.97

Beluša

1.60

allows per match

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

0.74

Beluša

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom+0.00on par

Beluša+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom ↓

Beluša →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom or draw

72%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom or Beluša

75%

Draw or Beluša

52%

Winning margin

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom wins by 2+

25%

Beluša wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 1+ goals

80%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 2+ goals

48%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 3+ goals

22%

Beluša 1+ goals

69%

Beluša 2+ goals

33%

Beluša 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom (draw refunded)

63%

Beluša (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.74 · 31 matches

Beluša away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.25 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom attack 1.97 + Beluša defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.61

Beluša attack 1.60 + Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom scores more

48%

level

25%

Beluša scores more

28%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff