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Bella Vista vs Atletico Torque — Segunda División 2026

Bella Vista
Bella Vista
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Torque
Atletico Torque
10/19/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 21Parque José Nasazzi (Montevideo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Bella Vista22%
×Draw28%
Atletico Torque50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bella Vista
0.83
Atletico Torque
1.39

Atletico Torque creates 67% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 27 away

creates per match

Bella Vista
0.89
Atletico Torque
1.15

allows per match

Bella Vista
1.63
Atletico Torque
0.78

finishing

Bella Vista+0.00on par
Atletico Torque+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bella Vista ↓

Atletico Torque →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bella Vista or draw
50%
Bella Vista or Atletico Torque
72%
Draw or Atletico Torque
78%

Winning margin

Bella Vista wins by 2+
7%
Atletico Torque wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Bella Vista 1+ goals
56%
Bella Vista 2+ goals
20%
Bella Vista 3+ goals
5%
Atletico Torque 1+ goals
75%
Atletico Torque 2+ goals
40%
Atletico Torque 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bella Vista (draw refunded)
31%
Atletico Torque (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bella Vista at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.63 · 27 matches

Atletico Torque away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.78 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bella Vista attack 0.89 + Atletico Torque defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.83

Atletico Torque attack 1.15 + Bella Vista defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bella Vista scores more
22%
level
28%
Atletico Torque scores more
50%

Atletico Torque at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Atletico Torque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Bella Vista 0–2 Atletico Torque

Atletico Torque beat Bella Vista 2-0 in Segunda División on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Parque José Nasazzi (Montevideo).