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Atletico Torque vs Bella Vista — Segunda División 2026

Atletico Torque
Atletico Torque
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bella Vista
Bella Vista
7/14/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 10Complejo Deportivo Rentistas (Montevideo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Atletico Torque54%
×Draw26%
Bella Vista20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Torque
1.54
Bella Vista
0.83

Atletico Torque creates 86% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 27 away

creates per match

Atletico Torque
1.46
Bella Vista
0.85

allows per match

Atletico Torque
0.82
Bella Vista
1.63

finishing

Atletico Torque+0.00on par
Bella Vista+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Torque ↓

Bella Vista →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Torque or draw
80%
Atletico Torque or Bella Vista
74%
Draw or Bella Vista
46%

Winning margin

Atletico Torque wins by 2+
28%
Bella Vista wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atletico Torque 1+ goals
79%
Atletico Torque 2+ goals
45%
Atletico Torque 3+ goals
20%
Bella Vista 1+ goals
56%
Bella Vista 2+ goals
20%
Bella Vista 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Torque (draw refunded)
73%
Bella Vista (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Torque at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.82 · 28 matches

Bella Vista away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.63 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Torque attack 1.46 + Bella Vista defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.54

Bella Vista attack 0.85 + Atletico Torque defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atletico Torque scores more
54%
level
26%
Bella Vista scores more
20%

Atletico Torque at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Atletico Torque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Atletico Torque 1–0 Bella Vista

Atletico Torque beat Bella Vista 1-0 in Segunda División on July 14, 2019.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Rentistas (Montevideo).