Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bella Vista vs Albion FC — Segunda División 2026

Bella Vista
Bella Vista
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Albion FC
Albion FC
8/18/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 13Parque José Nasazzi (Montevideo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Bella Vista27%
×Draw27%
Albion FC46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bella Vista
1.00
Albion FC
1.38

Albion FC creates 38% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 95 away

creates per match

Bella Vista
0.89
Albion FC
1.12

allows per match

Bella Vista
1.63
Albion FC
1.11

finishing

Bella Vista+0.00on par
Albion FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bella Vista ↓

Albion FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bella Vista or draw
54%
Bella Vista or Albion FC
73%
Draw or Albion FC
73%

Winning margin

Bella Vista wins by 2+
10%
Albion FC wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Bella Vista 1+ goals
63%
Bella Vista 2+ goals
26%
Bella Vista 3+ goals
8%
Albion FC 1+ goals
75%
Albion FC 2+ goals
40%
Albion FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bella Vista (draw refunded)
37%
Albion FC (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bella Vista at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.63 · 27 matches

Albion FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.11 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bella Vista attack 0.89 + Albion FC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Albion FC attack 1.12 + Bella Vista defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bella Vista scores more
27%
level
27%
Albion FC scores more
46%

Albion FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Albion FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bella Vista vs Albion FC

Albion FC beat Bella Vista 2-1 in Segunda División on August 18, 2019.

The match was played at Parque José Nasazzi (Montevideo).