Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Albion FC vs Bella Vista — Segunda División 2026

Albion FC
Albion FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bella Vista
Bella Vista
5/11/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 2Estadio Jardines del Hipódromo (Montevideo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Albion FC48%
×Draw27%
Bella Vista25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albion FC
1.43
Bella Vista
0.96

Albion FC creates 49% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 27 away

creates per match

Albion FC
1.23
Bella Vista
0.85

allows per match

Albion FC
1.06
Bella Vista
1.63

finishing

Albion FC+0.00on par
Bella Vista+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion FC ↓

Bella Vista →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Albion FC or draw
75%
Albion FC or Bella Vista
73%
Draw or Bella Vista
52%

Winning margin

Albion FC wins by 2+
23%
Bella Vista wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Albion FC 1+ goals
76%
Albion FC 2+ goals
42%
Albion FC 3+ goals
17%
Bella Vista 1+ goals
62%
Bella Vista 2+ goals
25%
Bella Vista 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Albion FC (draw refunded)
65%
Bella Vista (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albion FC at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.06 · 94 matches

Bella Vista away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.63 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albion FC attack 1.23 + Bella Vista defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.43

Bella Vista attack 0.85 + Albion FC defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Albion FC scores more
48%
level
27%
Bella Vista scores more
25%

Albion FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Albion FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Albion FC vs Bella Vista

Albion FC beat Bella Vista 1-0 in Segunda División on May 11, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Jardines del Hipódromo (Montevideo).