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Belgrano Cordoba vs Platense — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Belgrano Cordoba
Belgrano Cordoba
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Platense
Platense
R. Martínez 90+3'
10/19/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 18Estadio Julio César Villagra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Belgrano Cordoba42%
×Draw31%
Platense27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belgrano Cordoba
1.10
Platense
0.82

Belgrano Cordoba creates 34% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

creates per match

Belgrano Cordoba
0.99
Platense
0.73

allows per match

Belgrano Cordoba
0.92
Platense
1.21

finishing

Belgrano Cordoba+0.11scores more
Platense+0.03on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgrano Cordoba ↓

Platense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Belgrano Cordoba or draw
73%
Belgrano Cordoba or Platense
69%
Draw or Platense
58%

Winning margin

Belgrano Cordoba wins by 2+
17%
Platense wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Belgrano Cordoba 1+ goals
67%
Belgrano Cordoba 2+ goals
30%
Belgrano Cordoba 3+ goals
10%
Platense 1+ goals
56%
Platense 2+ goals
20%
Platense 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Belgrano Cordoba (draw refunded)
61%
Platense (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgrano Cordoba at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.92 · 21 matches

Platense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.21 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgrano Cordoba attack 0.99 + Platense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Platense attack 0.73 + Belgrano Cordoba defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Belgrano Cordoba scores more
42%
level
31%
Platense scores more
27%

Belgrano Cordoba at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Belgrano Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
S. MarcichPlatensePlatense · D
7.7

Match Events

23'
Francisco González Metilli
56'
B. Reyna← J. Velazquez
62'
Carlos Villalba
63'
M. Suárez← P. Chavarría
63'
L. Menossi← E. Rolón
64'
Tobías Cervera← I. Schor
64'
F. Baldassarra← V. Taborda
80'
R. Martínez← M. Pellegrino
81'
G. Heredia← G. Compagnucci
82'
J. Lucco← F. González
83'
Rafael Delgado
87'
A. Ocampo← G. Mainero
90+3'
R. Martínez↳ A. Ocampo

Possession

63%Belgrano

Shots

9Belgrano

Pass accuracy

54%Belgrano

Statistics

BelgranoPlatense
Overview
63%Possession37%
9Total Shots9
0.98Expected Goals (xG)0.49
3Corners6
10Fouls12
Shots
9Total Shots9
3On Target2
6Off Target4
0Blocked3
5Inside Box7
4Outside Box2
Passing
63%Possession37%
460Total Passes261
363Accurate Passes177
79%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
0.49Goals Prevented0.49
Discipline
10Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Belgrano Cordoba vs Platense

Platense beat Belgrano Cordoba 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 19, 2024.

Goals: R. Martínez (90+3').

Belgrano Cordoba controlled possession (63%) and registered 9 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Julio César Villagra in Ciudad de Córdoba, Provincia de Córdoba.