Belgrano Cordoba 0–1 Platense: Result & Stats

Belgrano Cordoba

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Platense

E. Bocchino 33'

5/20/2018

Copa Argentina · 1st RoundEstadio Florencio Solá (Lomas de Zamora, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Belgrano Cordoba47%

×Draw31%

Platense22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belgrano CordobaExpected goals in this matchPlatense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.71

Belgrano Cordoba

1.17

Platense

0.71

Belgrano Cordoba creates 65% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

1.67

creates per match

0.67

0.75

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Belgrano Cordoba

1.67

Platense

0.67

allows per match

Belgrano Cordoba

0.75

Platense

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belgrano Cordoba+0.00on par

Platense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgrano Cordoba ↓

Platense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Belgrano Cordoba or draw

78%

Belgrano Cordoba or Platense

69%

Draw or Platense

53%

Winning margin

Belgrano Cordoba wins by 2+

20%

Platense wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Belgrano Cordoba 1+ goals

69%

Belgrano Cordoba 2+ goals

33%

Belgrano Cordoba 3+ goals

11%

Platense 1+ goals

51%

Platense 2+ goals

16%

Platense 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Belgrano Cordoba (draw refunded)

68%

Platense (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgrano Cordoba at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Platense away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgrano Cordoba attack 1.67 + Platense defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Platense attack 0.67 + Belgrano Cordoba defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Belgrano Cordoba scores more

47%

level

31%

Platense scores more

22%

Belgrano Cordoba at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Belgrano Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

E. Bocchino

60'

J. Vizcarra← D. Vega

66'

F. Brener← M. Lugo

69'

J. Olivares← D. Tonetto

78'

J. Ramis← J. Brunetta

80'

F. Chiviló← E. Gallegos

Belgrano

Platense

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Cavallo

66'▲F. Brener←▼M. Lugo

78'▲J. Ramis←▼J. Brunetta

Belgrano Cordoba substitutes

BrenerRamisMontoyaGonzálezRikembergOstchegaMartínez

Manager: F. Ruiz

60'▲J. Vizcarra←▼D. Vega

69'▲J. Olivares←▼D. Tonetto

80'▲F. Chiviló←▼E. Gallegos

Platense substitutes

VizcarraOlivaresChivilóDesábatoCarrascoPuglieseToranzo

Copa Argentina: Belgrano Cordoba 0–1 Platense

Platense beat Belgrano Cordoba 1-0 in Copa Argentina on May 20, 2018.

Goals: E. Bocchino (33').

The match was played at Estadio Florencio Solá (Lomas de Zamora, Provincia de Buenos Aires).

Belgrano Cordoba vs Platense — Copa Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Copa Argentina: Belgrano Cordoba 0–1 Platense