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Belgrano Cordoba vs Atletico Paranaense — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Belgrano Cordoba
Belgrano Cordoba
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaenseadvanced
L. Di Yorio 89'
G. Mastriani 54'
8/22/2024CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 16Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Belgrano Cordoba21%
×Draw31%
Atletico Paranaense48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belgrano Cordoba
0.67
Atletico Paranaense
1.17

Atletico Paranaense creates 75% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

creates per match

Belgrano Cordoba
0.50
Atletico Paranaense
1.58

allows per match

Belgrano Cordoba
0.75
Atletico Paranaense
0.83

finishing

Belgrano Cordoba+0.00on par
Atletico Paranaense+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgrano Cordoba ↓

Atletico Paranaense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–119%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Belgrano Cordoba or draw
52%
Belgrano Cordoba or Atletico Paranaense
69%
Draw or Atletico Paranaense
79%

Winning margin

Belgrano Cordoba wins by 2+
6%
Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Belgrano Cordoba 1+ goals
49%
Belgrano Cordoba 2+ goals
15%
Belgrano Cordoba 3+ goals
3%
Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals
69%
Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals
33%
Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Belgrano Cordoba (draw refunded)
31%
Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgrano Cordoba at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Atletico Paranaense away — creates 1.58, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgrano Cordoba attack 0.50 + Atletico Paranaense defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.67

Atletico Paranaense attack 1.58 + Belgrano Cordoba defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Belgrano Cordoba scores more
21%
level
31%
Atletico Paranaense scores more
48%

Atletico Paranaense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atletico Paranaense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44
Thiago HelenoAtletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense · D
8.2

Match Events

6'
Esteban Rolón
20'
Erick
21'
Lucas Esquivel
24'
Fernando← B. Zapelli
46'
B. Reyna← E. Rolón
46'
N. Fernández← P. Chavarría
49'
Fernandinho
54'
G. Mastriani↳ Thiago Heleno
58'
Juan VelázquezPenalty cancelled
64'
Christian
64'
Gabriel← Fernandinho
64'
L. Di Yorio← G. Mastriani
67'
M. Suárez← J. Velazquez
87'
Franco Jara
87'
Julimar← T. Cuello
88'
G. Heredia← R. Delgado
89'
L. Di Yorio↳ Christian

Possession

77%Belgrano

Shots

14Belgrano

Pass accuracy

58%Belgrano

Statistics

BelgranoAtletico
Overview
77%Possession23%
14Total Shots3
12Corners1
9Fouls14
Shots
14Total Shots3
0On Target2
9Off Target0
5Blocked1
8Inside Box3
6Outside Box0
Passing
77%Possession23%
472Total Passes158
396Accurate Passes95
84%Pass Accuracy60%
Discipline
9Fouls14
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
2Offsides0

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Belgrano Cordoba 0–2 Atletico Paranaense

Atletico Paranaense beat Belgrano Cordoba 2-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on August 22, 2024.

Goals: G. Mastriani (54'), L. Di Yorio (89').

Belgrano Cordoba controlled possession (77%) and registered 14 shots to 3.

The match was played at Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes in Ciudad de Córdoba, Provincia de Córdoba.