Atletico Paranaense 2–1 Belgrano Cordoba

Atletico Paranaense

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Belgrano Cordoba

Christian 62'

Erick 41'

F. Jara 1'

8/15/2024

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 16Ligga Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Atletico Paranaense50%

×Draw25%

Belgrano Cordoba25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico ParanaenseExpected goals in this matchBelgrano Cordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.06

Atletico Paranaense

1.61

Belgrano Cordoba

1.06

Atletico Paranaense creates 52% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

2.23

creates per match

1.50

0.62

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Atletico Paranaense

2.23

Belgrano Cordoba

1.50

allows per match

Atletico Paranaense

0.62

Belgrano Cordoba

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Paranaense+0.00on par

Belgrano Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Paranaense ↓

Belgrano Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Atletico Paranaense or draw

75%

Atletico Paranaense or Belgrano Cordoba

75%

Draw or Belgrano Cordoba

50%

Winning margin

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+

26%

Belgrano Cordoba wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals

80%

Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals

48%

Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals

22%

Belgrano Cordoba 1+ goals

65%

Belgrano Cordoba 2+ goals

29%

Belgrano Cordoba 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)

67%

Belgrano Cordoba (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Paranaense at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Belgrano Cordoba away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Paranaense attack 2.23 + Belgrano Cordoba defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

Belgrano Cordoba attack 1.50 + Atletico Paranaense defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Atletico Paranaense scores more

50%

level

25%

Belgrano Cordoba scores more

25%

Atletico Paranaense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Atletico Paranaense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

L. Esquivel

Atletico Paranaense · D

9.0

Match Events

1'

F. Jara↳ J. Velazquez

27'

29'

29'

36'

41'

58'

Julimar← Erick

59'

G. Heredia← E. Rolón

59'

P. Chavarría← F. Jara

61'

Ignacio Chicco

62'

Christian↳ L. Esquivel

67'

B. Reyna← N. Fernández

69'

Bryan ReynaGoal cancelled

71'

Alejandro Rebola

74'

L. Godoy← T. Cuello

75'

Felipinho← João Cruz

84'

R. Delgado← N. Meriano

85'

S. Longo← F. Quignon

86'

Fernandinho

86'

Matias Moreno

86'

Fernando← G. Mastriani

86'

L. Di Yorio← A. Canobbio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoBelgrano

Overview

54%Possession46%

20Total Shots18

9Corners5

9Fouls9

Shots

20Total Shots18

8On Target5

4Off Target10

8Blocked3

13Inside Box8

7Outside Box10

Passing

54%Possession46%

373Total Passes318

304Accurate Passes237

82%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls9

3Yellow Cards5

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Atletico Paranaense vs Belgrano Cordoba

Atletico Paranaense beat Belgrano Cordoba 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on August 15, 2024.

Goals: F. Jara (1'), Erick (41'), Christian (62').

Atletico Paranaense controlled possession (54%) and registered 20 shots to 18.

The match was played at Ligga Arena in Curitiba, Paraná.

Atletico Paranaense vs Belgrano Cordoba — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Atletico Paranaense vs Belgrano Cordoba