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Belgrano Cordoba vs Atletico Mitre — Copa Argentina 2026

Belgrano Cordoba
Belgrano Cordoba
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Atletico Mitre
Atletico Mitre
2/7/2024Copa ArgentinaCopa Argentina · 1st RoundEstadio Eva Perón de Junín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Belgrano Cordoba43%
×Draw32%
Atletico Mitre25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belgrano Cordoba
1.08
Atletico Mitre
0.75

Belgrano Cordoba creates 44% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

creates per match

Belgrano Cordoba
1.67
Atletico Mitre
0.75

allows per match

Belgrano Cordoba
0.75
Atletico Mitre
0.50

finishing

Belgrano Cordoba+0.00on par
Atletico Mitre+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgrano Cordoba ↓

Atletico Mitre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Belgrano Cordoba or draw
75%
Belgrano Cordoba or Atletico Mitre
68%
Draw or Atletico Mitre
57%

Winning margin

Belgrano Cordoba wins by 2+
18%
Atletico Mitre wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Belgrano Cordoba 1+ goals
66%
Belgrano Cordoba 2+ goals
29%
Belgrano Cordoba 3+ goals
10%
Atletico Mitre 1+ goals
53%
Atletico Mitre 2+ goals
17%
Atletico Mitre 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Belgrano Cordoba (draw refunded)
63%
Atletico Mitre (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgrano Cordoba at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Atletico Mitre away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgrano Cordoba attack 1.67 + Atletico Mitre defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Atletico Mitre attack 0.75 + Belgrano Cordoba defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Belgrano Cordoba scores more
43%
level
32%
Atletico Mitre scores more
25%

Belgrano Cordoba at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Belgrano Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Belgrano Cordoba vs Atletico Mitre

Atletico Mitre beat Belgrano Cordoba 2-1 in Copa Argentina on February 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Eva Perón de Junín in Junín, Provincia de Buenos Aires.