Belgrano Cordoba 1–3 Atletico Mitre: Result & Stats

Belgrano Cordoba

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Atletico Mitre

M. Comba 82'

S. Rosales 74' (pen)

C. Díaz 39'

D. Romero 5'

8/7/2022

Primera Nacional · Round 28Estadio Julio César Villagra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Belgrano Cordoba52%

×Draw28%

Atletico Mitre20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belgrano CordobaExpected goals in this matchAtletico Mitre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.72

Belgrano Cordoba

1.34

Atletico Mitre

0.72

Belgrano Cordoba creates 86% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 124 away

1.52

creates per match

0.71

0.73

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Belgrano Cordoba

1.52

Atletico Mitre

0.71

allows per match

Belgrano Cordoba

0.73

Atletico Mitre

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belgrano Cordoba+0.00on par

Atletico Mitre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgrano Cordoba ↓

Atletico Mitre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Belgrano Cordoba or draw

80%

Belgrano Cordoba or Atletico Mitre

72%

Draw or Atletico Mitre

48%

Winning margin

Belgrano Cordoba wins by 2+

25%

Atletico Mitre wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Belgrano Cordoba 1+ goals

74%

Belgrano Cordoba 2+ goals

39%

Belgrano Cordoba 3+ goals

15%

Atletico Mitre 1+ goals

51%

Atletico Mitre 2+ goals

16%

Atletico Mitre 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Belgrano Cordoba (draw refunded)

72%

Atletico Mitre (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgrano Cordoba at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.73 · 48 matches

Atletico Mitre away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.17 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgrano Cordoba attack 1.52 + Atletico Mitre defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.34

Atletico Mitre attack 0.71 + Belgrano Cordoba defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Belgrano Cordoba scores more

52%

level

28%

Atletico Mitre scores more

20%

Belgrano Cordoba at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Belgrano Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

D. Romero

16'

L. Fioravanti← M. Sánchez

21'

27'

39'

46'

46'

T. Ostchega← A. Ochoa

55'

T. Ostchega

64'

A. Coronel← F. Juárez

66'

H. Bernardello← S. Longo

66'

I. Ortigoza← D. García

74'

S. RosalesPenalty

78'

G. Vadalá← D. Romero

78'

M. Ferrari← D. González

78'

E. Cérica← S. Rosales

79'

I. Hesar← U. Sánchez

82'

M. Comba

88'

R. Lugo

Belgrano

Atletico

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Rosales

▼

González

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: G. Farré

46'▲M. Comba←▼G. Pereira

46'▲T. Ostchega←▼A. Ochoa

66'▲H. Bernardello←▼S. Longo

66'▲I. Ortigoza←▼D. García

79'▲I. Hesar←▼U. Sánchez

Belgrano Cordoba substitutes

CombaOstchegaBernardelloOrtigozaHesarOliveraVicentiniRamírezTapia

Manager: P. Ricchetti

16'▲L. Fioravanti←▼M. Sánchez

64'▲A. Coronel←▼F. Juárez

78'▲G. Vadalá←▼D. Romero

78'▲M. Ferrari←▼D. González

78'▲E. Cérica←▼S. Rosales

Atletico Mitre substitutes

FioravantiCoronelVadaláFerrariCéricaRolónViottiQuinterosLópez