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Belgium U19 vs Albania U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Belgium U19
Belgium U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Albania U19
Albania U19
11/18/2023UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 6Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Belgium U1974%
×Draw17%
Albania U199%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belgium U19
2.31
Albania U19
0.67

Belgium U19 creates 245% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 10 away

creates per match

Belgium U19
1.83
Albania U19
0.40

allows per match

Belgium U19
0.94
Albania U19
2.80

finishing

Belgium U19+0.00on par
Albania U19+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium U19 ↓

Albania U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Belgium U19 or draw
91%
Belgium U19 or Albania U19
83%
Draw or Albania U19
26%

Winning margin

Belgium U19 wins by 2+
50%
Albania U19 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Belgium U19 1+ goals
90%
Belgium U19 2+ goals
67%
Belgium U19 3+ goals
40%
Albania U19 1+ goals
49%
Albania U19 2+ goals
15%
Albania U19 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Belgium U19 (draw refunded)
89%
Albania U19 (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgium U19 at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Albania U19 away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgium U19 attack 1.83 + Albania U19 defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.31

Albania U19 attack 0.40 + Belgium U19 defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Belgium U19 scores more
74%
level
17%
Albania U19 scores more
9%

Belgium U19 at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Belgium U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Belgium U19 vs Albania U19

Belgium U19 beat Albania U19 2-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Elbasan Arena in Elbasan.