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Belgium U19 vs Albania U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Belgium U19
Belgium U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Albania U19
Albania U19
11/16/2019UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Qualifying Round - 7B-Veld Racing Genk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Belgium U1957%
×Draw22%
Albania U1921%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belgium U19
1.95
Albania U19
1.11

Belgium U19 creates 76% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Belgium U19
1.50
Albania U19
0.40

allows per match

Belgium U19
1.83
Albania U19
2.40

finishing

Belgium U19+0.00on par
Albania U19+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium U19 ↓

Albania U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Belgium U19 or draw
79%
Belgium U19 or Albania U19
78%
Draw or Albania U19
43%

Winning margin

Belgium U19 wins by 2+
33%
Albania U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Belgium U19 1+ goals
86%
Belgium U19 2+ goals
58%
Belgium U19 3+ goals
31%
Albania U19 1+ goals
67%
Albania U19 2+ goals
30%
Albania U19 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Belgium U19 (draw refunded)
73%
Albania U19 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgium U19 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Albania U19 away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgium U19 attack 1.50 + Albania U19 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.95

Albania U19 attack 0.40 + Belgium U19 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Belgium U19 scores more
57%
level
22%
Albania U19 scores more
21%

Belgium U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Belgium U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Belgium U19 vs Albania U19

Belgium U19 beat Albania U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship on November 16, 2019.

The match was played at B-Veld Racing Genk in Genk.