Belgium U17 vs Estonia U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022
UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 5Centrul de Fotbal Buftea Teren NaturalMatch Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 14+ matches
Belgium U1780%
Estonia U178%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Belgium U17 creates 253% more chances
Season form · 19 home / 14 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over75
- Under25
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Belgium U17 ↓
Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Belgium U17 at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches
Estonia U17 away — creates 0.71, concedes 3.64 · 14 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Belgium U17 attack 2.58 + Estonia U17 defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 3.11
Estonia U17 attack 0.71 + Belgium U17 defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.88
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 80%?"
Belgium U17 at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 80% does not mean "Belgium U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
3 previous meetings · small sampleBelgium U17
France U17
Spain U17
Republic of Ireland U17
Italy U17
Czech Republic U17
Sweden U17
Turkey U17
Hungary U17
Croatia U17
Denmark U17
Israel U17
Montenegro U17
Serbia U17
Scotland U17
Bulgaria U17
Romania U17
Finland U17
Slovenia U17
Germany U17
Netherlands U17
Greece U17
Iceland U17
Switzerland U17
Austria U17
Portugal U17
Ukraine U17
Latvia U17
Georgia U17
Poland U17
Cyprus U17
Lithuania U17
Kazakhstan U17
Slovakia U17
Wales U17
Moldova U17
Belarus U17
England U17
Faroe Islands U17
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
Norway U17
Northern Ireland U17
North Macedonia U17
Luxembourg U17
Armenia U17
Andorra U17
San Marino U17
Azerbaijan U17
Albania U17
Malta U17
Kosovo U17Estonia U17
Liechtenstein U17
Gibraltar U17If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Belgium U17 host Estonia U17 on Wednesday, 26 October 2022 at 10:00. The match is part of the UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022/2023 season.
UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification: Belgium U17 4–1 Estonia U17
Belgium U17 beat Estonia U17 4-1 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on October 26, 2022.
Goals: G. De Meyer (39'), M. Gérard (62'), M. Kalimullin (78'), R. Di Matteo (82'), R. Bounida (87').
The match was played at Centrul de Fotbal Buftea Teren Natural in Buftea.