Belgium U17 8–1 Estonia U17: Result & Stats

Belgium U17

FT

8 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Estonia U17

C. Talbi 88'

M. Godts 58'

V. Burlet 56'

N. Kinsiona 50'

F. Al Mazyani 44'

M. Fofana 41', 27', 10'

K. Mustmaa 40'

3/23/2022

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 1Novi Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Belgium U1780%

×Draw12%

Estonia U178%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belgium U17Expected goals in this matchEstonia U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.11

0.88

Belgium U17

3.11

Estonia U17

0.88

Belgium U17 creates 253% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

2.58

creates per match

0.71

1.05

allows per match

3.64

creates per match

Belgium U17

2.58

Estonia U17

0.71

allows per match

Belgium U17

1.05

Estonia U17

3.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belgium U17+0.00on par

Estonia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium U17 ↓

Estonia U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Belgium U17 or draw

92%

Belgium U17 or Estonia U17

88%

Draw or Estonia U17

20%

Winning margin

Belgium U17 wins by 2+

61%

Estonia U17 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Belgium U17 1+ goals

95%

Belgium U17 2+ goals

81%

Belgium U17 3+ goals

58%

Estonia U17 1+ goals

59%

Estonia U17 2+ goals

22%

Estonia U17 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Belgium U17 (draw refunded)

91%

Estonia U17 (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgium U17 at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Estonia U17 away — creates 0.71, concedes 3.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgium U17 attack 2.58 + Estonia U17 defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 3.11

Estonia U17 attack 0.71 + Belgium U17 defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Belgium U17 scores more

80%

level

12%

Estonia U17 scores more

8%

Belgium U17 at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Belgium U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

27'

40'

41'

44'

46'

V. Burlet← L. Monticelli

50'

54'

56'

58'

62'

62'

A. Volossatov← D. Jepihhin

62'

T. Vendelin← Ramaz Kardava

62'

M. Sepp← O. Cekredzi

65'

C. Talbi← C. Çanak

65'

F. Soelle← M. Fofana

65'

M. Sturbaut← K. Sabbe

74'

E. Geerts← M. Godts

78'

M. Kalimullin← T. Pajo

84'

A. Volossatov

88'

C. Talbi

Belgium

Estonia

1

Pürg

4

Alteberg

6

Kolobov

13

▼

Kardava

8

▼

5

3

10

9

▼

Jepihhin

11

⚽

▼

Mustmaa

7

▼

Cekredzi

1

Epolo

2

▼

Sabbe

3

Noubi

7

▼

Çanak

8

⚽

Kinsiona

16

⚽

Mazyani

11

⚽

▼

Godts

6

Vermeeren

19

⚽3

▼

Fofana

5

▼

Monticell

17

Agyei

Manager: D. Penneman

46'▲V. Burlet←▼L. Monticelli

65'▲C. Talbi←▼C. Çanak

65'▲F. Soelle←▼M. Fofana

65'▲M. Sturbaut←▼K. Sabbe

74'▲E. Geerts←▼M. Godts

Belgium U17 substitutes

15Burlet10Talbi9Soelle13Sturbaut18Geerts20Ghalidi4Digberekou14Spileers12Penders

Manager: M. Pärnpuu

54'▲K. Kriis←▼K. Mustmaa

62'▲A. Volossatov←▼D. Jepihhin

62'▲T. Vendelin←▼Ramaz Kardava

62'▲M. Sepp←▼O. Cekredzi

78'▲M. Kalimullin←▼T. Pajo

Estonia U17 substitutes

20Kriis17Volossatov18Vendelin14Sepp16Kalimullin12Pareiko19Dikajev15Leppsalu