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Belenenses vs Academico Viseu — Segunda Liga 2018

Belenenses
Belenenses
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Academico Viseu
Academico Viseu
4/15/2023Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 28Estádio Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Belenenses31%
×Draw25%
Academico Viseu44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belenenses
1.22
Academico Viseu
1.50

Academico Viseu creates 23% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 133 away

creates per match

Belenenses
1.06
Academico Viseu
1.16

allows per match

Belenenses
1.83
Academico Viseu
1.38

finishing

Belenenses+0.00on par
Academico Viseu+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belenenses ↓

Academico Viseu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Belenenses or draw
56%
Belenenses or Academico Viseu
75%
Draw or Academico Viseu
69%

Winning margin

Belenenses wins by 2+
13%
Academico Viseu wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Belenenses 1+ goals
70%
Belenenses 2+ goals
34%
Belenenses 3+ goals
12%
Academico Viseu 1+ goals
78%
Academico Viseu 2+ goals
44%
Academico Viseu 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Belenenses (draw refunded)
41%
Academico Viseu (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belenenses at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

Academico Viseu away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.38 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belenenses attack 1.06 + Academico Viseu defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.22

Academico Viseu attack 1.16 + Belenenses defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Belenenses scores more
31%
level
25%
Academico Viseu scores more
44%

Academico Viseu at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Academico Viseu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Belenenses 1–1 Academico Viseu

Belenenses and Academico Viseu drew 1-1 in Segunda Liga on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Nacional in Jamor, Oeiras.