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Academico Viseu vs Belenenses — Segunda Liga 2018

Academico Viseu
Academico Viseu
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Belenenses
Belenenses
10/30/2022Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 11Estádio Municipal do Fontelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Academico Viseu42%
×Draw26%
Belenenses32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Academico Viseu
1.42
Belenenses
1.19

Academico Viseu creates 19% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 18 away

creates per match

Academico Viseu
1.27
Belenenses
1.28

allows per match

Academico Viseu
1.10
Belenenses
1.56

finishing

Academico Viseu+0.00on par
Belenenses+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academico Viseu ↓

Belenenses →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Academico Viseu or draw
68%
Academico Viseu or Belenenses
74%
Draw or Belenenses
58%

Winning margin

Academico Viseu wins by 2+
20%
Belenenses wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Academico Viseu 1+ goals
76%
Academico Viseu 2+ goals
41%
Academico Viseu 3+ goals
17%
Belenenses 1+ goals
70%
Belenenses 2+ goals
33%
Belenenses 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Academico Viseu (draw refunded)
57%
Belenenses (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academico Viseu at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

Belenenses away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academico Viseu attack 1.27 + Belenenses defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.42

Belenenses attack 1.28 + Academico Viseu defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Academico Viseu scores more
42%
level
26%
Belenenses scores more
32%

Academico Viseu at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Academico Viseu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Academico Viseu 2–1 Belenenses

Academico Viseu beat Belenenses 2-1 in Segunda Liga on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal do Fontelo in Viseu.