Belarus U19 3–1 Armenia U19: Result & Stats

Belarus U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Armenia U19

T. Simanenka 52', 30'

A. Akatov 21'

D. Batoyan 74'

11/19/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 7Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Belarus U1973%

×Draw16%

Armenia U1911%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belarus U19Expected goals in this matchArmenia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

0.83

Belarus U19

2.46

Armenia U19

0.83

Belarus U19 creates 196% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

2.50

creates per match

1.00

0.67

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Belarus U19

2.50

Armenia U19

1.00

allows per match

Belarus U19

0.67

Armenia U19

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belarus U19+0.00on par

Armenia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belarus U19 ↓

Armenia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Belarus U19 or draw

89%

Belarus U19 or Armenia U19

84%

Draw or Armenia U19

27%

Winning margin

Belarus U19 wins by 2+

50%

Armenia U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Belarus U19 1+ goals

91%

Belarus U19 2+ goals

70%

Belarus U19 3+ goals

44%

Armenia U19 1+ goals

56%

Armenia U19 2+ goals

20%

Armenia U19 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Belarus U19 (draw refunded)

87%

Armenia U19 (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belarus U19 at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Armenia U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belarus U19 attack 2.50 + Armenia U19 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.46

Armenia U19 attack 1.00 + Belarus U19 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Belarus U19 scores more

73%

level

16%

Armenia U19 scores more

11%

Belarus U19 at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Belarus U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

A. Akatov

30'

T. Simanenka

46'

A. Dayneko← N. Shaula

46'

M. Mokin← M. Kononov

46'

K. Ghazaryan← H. Musikyan

52'

T. Simanenka

56'

A. Arakelyan← G. Simonyan

56'

D. Batoyan← D. Ghiasyan

56'

G. Grigoryan← A. Askaryan

62'

N. Matysyuk

63'

M. Sokolovskiy← M. Aleksandrov

70'

T. Melnichenko← E. Mikanovich

74'

D. Batoyan

75'

N. Kondratenya← P. Shevchenko

79'

D. Batoian

85'

T. Melnichenko

86'

T. Simanenka

Belarus

Armenia

1

20

2

5

15

▼

Musikyan

10

▼

Ghiasyan

7

Harutyuny

8

▼

Simonyan

17

▼

11

9

16

23

▼

Aleksandr

15

Bakhno

3

⚽

Akatov

22

▼

Shevchenk

8

Sokolovsk

17

▼

Mikanovic

19

⚽2

Simanenka

20

Chernyavs

18

▼

Shaula

9

▼

Kononov

Manager: V. Pavlov

46'▲A. Dayneko←▼N. Shaula

46'▲M. Mokin←▼M. Kononov

63'▲M. Sokolovskiy←▼M. Aleksandrov

70'▲T. Melnichenko←▼E. Mikanovich

75'▲N. Kondratenya←▼P. Shevchenko

Belarus U19 substitutes

13Dayneko10Mokin21Sokolovskiy11Melnichenko5Kondratenya1Veretynskiy2Bozhko

Manager: V. Minasyan

46'▲K. Ghazaryan←▼H. Musikyan

56'▲A. Arakelyan←▼G. Simonyan

56'▲D. Batoyan←▼D. Ghiasyan

56'▲G. Grigoryan←▼A. Askaryan

Armenia U19 substitutes

4Ghazaryan6Arakelyan16Batoyan18Grigoryan12Chatoyan13Hovakimyan14Hakobyan19Kirakosyan