Armenia U19 1–1 Belarus U19: Result & Stats

Armenia U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Belarus U19

V. Tovmasyan 64'

A. Ageev 60'

9/27/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 5GWG-Stadion A-Platz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Armenia U1929%

×Draw22%

Belarus U1949%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Armenia U19Expected goals in this matchBelarus U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.94

Armenia U19

1.43

Belarus U19

1.94

Belarus U19 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

0.86

creates per match

0.88

3.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Armenia U19

0.86

Belarus U19

0.88

allows per match

Armenia U19

3.00

Belarus U19

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Armenia U19+0.00on par

Belarus U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armenia U19 ↓

Belarus U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Armenia U19 or draw

51%

Armenia U19 or Belarus U19

78%

Draw or Belarus U19

71%

Winning margin

Armenia U19 wins by 2+

13%

Belarus U19 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Armenia U19 1+ goals

76%

Armenia U19 2+ goals

42%

Armenia U19 3+ goals

17%

Belarus U19 1+ goals

86%

Belarus U19 2+ goals

58%

Belarus U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Armenia U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Belarus U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armenia U19 at home — creates 0.86, concedes 3.00 · 7 matches

Belarus U19 away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armenia U19 attack 0.86 + Belarus U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Belarus U19 attack 0.88 + Armenia U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Armenia U19 scores more

29%

level

22%

Belarus U19 scores more

49%

Belarus U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Belarus U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

K. Davtyan

28'

V. Hakobyan

41'

A. Dunayeu

46'

A. Frantsuzov← V. Varaksa

57'

V. Tovmasyan← K. Davtyan

60'

A. Ageev

64'

V. Tovmasyan

65'

G. Papian← V. Hakobyan

65'

N. Hovhannisyan← A. Eloyan

65'

A. Blotskiy← D. Dushevskiy

65'

T. Sharkovskiy← A. Ageev

70'

M. Kireev

78'

A. Guz← M. Kireev

86'

K. Hovhannisyan← H. Tatosyan

90'

A. Dunayeu

90'

A. Dunayeu

90+2'

V. Krasovskiy← K. Tsepenkov

Armenia

Belarus

12

Shimakovi

21

⚽

▼

2

3

4

10

▼

Tsepenkov

17

▼

Varaksa

13

▼

Dushevski

15

Martinkev

18

▼

7

1

4

14

5

11

18

17

▼

Hakobyan

8

▼

Tatosyan

9

▼

Eloyan

10

▼

Davtyan

7

Mkrtychya

Manager: V. Minasyan

57'▲V. Tovmasyan←▼K. Davtyan

65'▲G. Papian←▼V. Hakobyan

65'▲N. Hovhannisyan←▼A. Eloyan

86'▲K. Hovhannisyan←▼H. Tatosyan

Armenia U19 substitutes

19Tovmasyan6Papian21Hovhannisyan22Hovhannisyan23Papikyan3Grigoryan12Khachatryan2Darbinyan15Kankanyan

Manager: Y. Markhel

46'▲A. Frantsuzov←▼V. Varaksa

65'▲A. Blotskiy←▼D. Dushevskiy

65'▲T. Sharkovskiy←▼A. Ageev

78'▲A. Guz←▼M. Kireev

90+2'▲V. Krasovskiy←▼K. Tsepenkov

Belarus U19 substitutes

9Frantsuzov6Blotskiy19Sharkovskiy11Guz5Krasovskiy8Zhulpa20Gitselev

Match Recap: Armenia U19 vs Belarus U19

Armenia U19 and Belarus U19 drew 1-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on September 27, 2022.

Goals: A. Ageev (60'), V. Tovmasyan (64').

The match was played at GWG-Stadion A-Platz in Gifhorn.

Armenia U19 vs Belarus U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Armenia U19 vs Belarus U19