Béké Bembèrèkè 1–1 Ayema: Result & Stats

Béké Bembèrèkè

FT

1 – 1

Ayema

6/9/2021

Championnat National · Championship Round - 13Stade Saka Kina Guézéré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Béké Bembèrèkè37%

×Draw33%

Ayema30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Béké BembèrèkèExpected goals in this matchAyema

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

0.83

Béké Bembèrèkè

0.95

Ayema

0.83

Béké Bembèrèkè creates 14% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 123 away

1.08

creates per match

0.89

0.78

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Béké Bembèrèkè

1.08

Ayema

0.89

allows per match

Béké Bembèrèkè

0.78

Ayema

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Béké Bembèrèkè+0.00on par

Ayema+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Béké Bembèrèkè ↓

Ayema →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

11%89%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Béké Bembèrèkè or draw

70%

Béké Bembèrèkè or Ayema

67%

Draw or Ayema

63%

Winning margin

Béké Bembèrèkè wins by 2+

14%

Ayema wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Béké Bembèrèkè 1+ goals

61%

Béké Bembèrèkè 2+ goals

25%

Béké Bembèrèkè 3+ goals

7%

Ayema 1+ goals

56%

Ayema 2+ goals

20%

Ayema 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Béké Bembèrèkè (draw refunded)

55%

Ayema (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Béké Bembèrèkè at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.78 · 88 matches

Ayema away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.81 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Béké Bembèrèkè attack 1.08 + Ayema defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.95

Ayema attack 0.89 + Béké Bembèrèkè defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Béké Bembèrèkè scores more

37%

level

33%

Ayema scores more

30%

Béké Bembèrèkè at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Béké Bembèrèkè will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff