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Ayema vs Béké Bembèrèkè — Championnat National 2019

Ayema
Ayema
FT
0 – 1
Béké Bembèrèkè
Béké Bembèrèkè
4/28/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 4Stade Jean-Pierre Gascon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Ayema46%
×Draw30%
Béké Bembèrèkè24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayema
1.21
Béké Bembèrèkè
0.77

Ayema creates 57% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 93 away

creates per match

Ayema
1.25
Béké Bembèrèkè
0.91

allows per match

Ayema
0.63
Béké Bembèrèkè
1.16

finishing

Ayema+0.00on par
Béké Bembèrèkè+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayema ↓

Béké Bembèrèkè →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ayema or draw
76%
Ayema or Béké Bembèrèkè
70%
Draw or Béké Bembèrèkè
54%

Winning margin

Ayema wins by 2+
21%
Béké Bembèrèkè wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ayema 1+ goals
70%
Ayema 2+ goals
34%
Ayema 3+ goals
12%
Béké Bembèrèkè 1+ goals
54%
Béké Bembèrèkè 2+ goals
18%
Béké Bembèrèkè 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ayema (draw refunded)
66%
Béké Bembèrèkè (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayema at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.63 · 122 matches

Béké Bembèrèkè away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.16 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayema attack 1.25 + Béké Bembèrèkè defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Béké Bembèrèkè attack 0.91 + Ayema defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ayema scores more
46%
level
30%
Béké Bembèrèkè scores more
24%

Ayema at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ayema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ayema vs Béké Bembèrèkè

Béké Bembèrèkè beat Ayema 1-0 in Championnat National on April 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Jean-Pierre Gascon in Pobè.