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Beitar Jerusalem vs Ashdod — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Beitar Jerusalem
Beitar Jerusalem
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Ashdod
Ashdod
8/25/2024Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 1Bloomfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Beitar Jerusalem42%
×Draw26%
Ashdod32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beitar Jerusalem
1.46
Ashdod
1.23

Beitar Jerusalem creates 19% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 119 away

creates per match

Beitar Jerusalem
1.40
Ashdod
1.17

allows per match

Beitar Jerusalem
1.28
Ashdod
1.51

finishing

Beitar Jerusalem+0.00on par
Ashdod+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beitar Jerusalem ↓

Ashdod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Beitar Jerusalem or draw
68%
Beitar Jerusalem or Ashdod
74%
Draw or Ashdod
58%

Winning margin

Beitar Jerusalem wins by 2+
20%
Ashdod wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Beitar Jerusalem 1+ goals
77%
Beitar Jerusalem 2+ goals
43%
Beitar Jerusalem 3+ goals
18%
Ashdod 1+ goals
71%
Ashdod 2+ goals
35%
Ashdod 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Beitar Jerusalem (draw refunded)
57%
Ashdod (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beitar Jerusalem at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.28 · 120 matches

Ashdod away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.51 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beitar Jerusalem attack 1.40 + Ashdod defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ashdod attack 1.17 + Beitar Jerusalem defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Beitar Jerusalem scores more
42%
level
26%
Ashdod scores more
32%

Beitar Jerusalem at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Beitar Jerusalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligat Ha'al: Beitar Jerusalem 3–2 Ashdod

Beitar Jerusalem beat Ashdod 3-2 in Ligat Ha'al on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Bloomfield Stadium in Tel-Aviv.