Ashdod 2–3 Beitar Jerusalem: Result & Stats

Ashdod

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Beitar Jerusalem

12/14/2024

Ligat Ha'al · Round 14Yud-Alef Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Ashdod33%

×Draw25%

Beitar Jerusalem42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AshdodExpected goals in this matchBeitar Jerusalem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.49

Ashdod

1.30

Beitar Jerusalem

1.49

Beitar Jerusalem creates 15% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 120 away

1.27

creates per match

1.57

1.41

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Ashdod

1.27

Beitar Jerusalem

1.57

allows per match

Ashdod

1.41

Beitar Jerusalem

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ashdod+0.00on par

Beitar Jerusalem+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ashdod ↓

Beitar Jerusalem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ashdod or draw

58%

Ashdod or Beitar Jerusalem

75%

Draw or Beitar Jerusalem

67%

Winning margin

Ashdod wins by 2+

14%

Beitar Jerusalem wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Ashdod 1+ goals

73%

Ashdod 2+ goals

37%

Ashdod 3+ goals

14%

Beitar Jerusalem 1+ goals

77%

Beitar Jerusalem 2+ goals

44%

Beitar Jerusalem 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Ashdod (draw refunded)

44%

Beitar Jerusalem (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ashdod at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.41 · 118 matches

Beitar Jerusalem away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.33 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ashdod attack 1.27 + Beitar Jerusalem defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.30

Beitar Jerusalem attack 1.57 + Ashdod defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ashdod scores more

33%

level

25%

Beitar Jerusalem scores more

42%

Beitar Jerusalem at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Beitar Jerusalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff