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Beijing Renhe vs Beijing Guoan — Super League 2018

Beijing Renhe
Beijing Renhe
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
8/18/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 19Fengtai Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Beijing Renhe30%
×Draw24%
Beijing Guoan46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Renhe
1.29
Beijing Guoan
1.66

Beijing Guoan creates 29% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 121 away

creates per match

Beijing Renhe
1.17
Beijing Guoan
1.59

allows per match

Beijing Renhe
1.73
Beijing Guoan
1.42

finishing

Beijing Renhe+0.00on par
Beijing Guoan+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Renhe ↓

Beijing Guoan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Beijing Renhe or draw
54%
Beijing Renhe or Beijing Guoan
76%
Draw or Beijing Guoan
70%

Winning margin

Beijing Renhe wins by 2+
13%
Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Beijing Renhe 1+ goals
72%
Beijing Renhe 2+ goals
37%
Beijing Renhe 3+ goals
14%
Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
81%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
49%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)
39%
Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Renhe at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.42 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Renhe attack 1.17 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.29

Beijing Guoan attack 1.59 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Beijing Renhe scores more
30%
level
24%
Beijing Guoan scores more
46%

Beijing Guoan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beijing Renhe vs Beijing Guoan

Beijing Renhe beat Beijing Guoan 3-0 in Super League on August 18, 2018.

The match was played at Fengtai Sports Center in Beijing.