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Beijing Guoan vs Beijing Renhe — Super League 2018

Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Beijing Renhe
Beijing Renhe
7/17/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 18Beijing Workers' Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Beijing Guoan63%
×Draw20%
Beijing Renhe17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Guoan
2.11
Beijing Renhe
0.98

Beijing Guoan creates 115% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 30 away

creates per match

Beijing Guoan
2.25
Beijing Renhe
0.80

allows per match

Beijing Guoan
1.16
Beijing Renhe
1.97

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.00on par
Beijing Renhe+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

Beijing Renhe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw
83%
Beijing Guoan or Beijing Renhe
80%
Draw or Beijing Renhe
37%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
39%
Beijing Renhe wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
88%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
62%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
35%
Beijing Renhe 1+ goals
62%
Beijing Renhe 2+ goals
26%
Beijing Renhe 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
79%
Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.16 · 122 matches

Beijing Renhe away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 2.25 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.11

Beijing Renhe attack 0.80 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more
63%
level
20%
Beijing Renhe scores more
17%

Beijing Guoan at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beijing Guoan vs Beijing Renhe

Beijing Guoan beat Beijing Renhe 2-1 in Super League on July 17, 2019.

The match was played at Beijing Workers' Stadium in Beijing.