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Beijing Renhe vs Beijing Baxy — League One 2018

Beijing Renhe
Beijing Renhe
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
10/8/2020League OneLeague One · Round 8Chengdu Longquanyi Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Beijing Renhe45%
×Draw23%
Beijing Baxy32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Renhe
1.72
Beijing Baxy
1.41

Beijing Renhe creates 22% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 71 away

creates per match

Beijing Renhe
1.88
Beijing Baxy
1.07

allows per match

Beijing Renhe
1.75
Beijing Baxy
1.56

finishing

Beijing Renhe+0.00on par
Beijing Baxy+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Renhe ↓

Beijing Baxy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Beijing Renhe or draw
68%
Beijing Renhe or Beijing Baxy
77%
Draw or Beijing Baxy
55%

Winning margin

Beijing Renhe wins by 2+
24%
Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Beijing Renhe 1+ goals
82%
Beijing Renhe 2+ goals
51%
Beijing Renhe 3+ goals
25%
Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
76%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
41%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)
59%
Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Renhe at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Beijing Baxy away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.56 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Renhe attack 1.88 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.72

Beijing Baxy attack 1.07 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Beijing Renhe scores more
45%
level
23%
Beijing Baxy scores more
32%

Beijing Renhe at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Beijing Renhe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Beijing Renhe 3–2 Beijing Baxy

Beijing Renhe beat Beijing Baxy 3-2 in League One on October 8, 2020.

The match was played at Chengdu Longquanyi Football Stadium in Chengdu.