Beijing Baxy 3–0 Beijing Renhe: Result & Stats

Beijing Baxy

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Beijing Renhe

10/25/2020

League One · Relegation Round - 1Wuhua People's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Beijing Baxy48%

×Draw27%

Beijing Renhe25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beijing BaxyExpected goals in this matchBeijing Renhe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.96

Beijing Baxy

1.42

Beijing Renhe

0.96

Beijing Baxy creates 48% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 9 away

1.39

creates per match

0.78

1.15

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Beijing Baxy

1.39

Beijing Renhe

0.78

allows per match

Beijing Baxy

1.15

Beijing Renhe

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beijing Baxy+0.00on par

Beijing Renhe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Baxy ↓

Beijing Renhe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Beijing Baxy or draw

75%

Beijing Baxy or Beijing Renhe

73%

Draw or Beijing Renhe

52%

Winning margin

Beijing Baxy wins by 2+

23%

Beijing Renhe wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Beijing Baxy 1+ goals

76%

Beijing Baxy 2+ goals

41%

Beijing Baxy 3+ goals

17%

Beijing Renhe 1+ goals

62%

Beijing Renhe 2+ goals

25%

Beijing Renhe 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)

65%

Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Baxy at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.15 · 72 matches

Beijing Renhe away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Baxy attack 1.39 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Beijing Renhe attack 0.78 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Beijing Baxy scores more

48%

level

27%

Beijing Renhe scores more

25%

Beijing Baxy at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Beijing Baxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff