Beijing Guoan 2–1 Wuhan Zall: Result & Stats

Beijing Guoan

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Wuhan Zall

8/3/2021

Super League · Round 11Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Beijing Guoan57%

×Draw22%

Wuhan Zall21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beijing GuoanExpected goals in this matchWuhan Zall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.10

Beijing Guoan

1.96

Wuhan Zall

1.10

Beijing Guoan creates 78% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 53 away

2.25

creates per match

1.04

1.16

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Beijing Guoan

2.25

Wuhan Zall

1.04

allows per match

Beijing Guoan

1.16

Wuhan Zall

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.00on par

Wuhan Zall+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

Wuhan Zall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw

79%

Beijing Guoan or Wuhan Zall

78%

Draw or Wuhan Zall

43%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

34%

Wuhan Zall wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

86%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

58%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

31%

Wuhan Zall 1+ goals

67%

Wuhan Zall 2+ goals

30%

Wuhan Zall 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

73%

Wuhan Zall (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.16 · 122 matches

Wuhan Zall away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.68 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 2.25 + Wuhan Zall defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.96

Wuhan Zall attack 1.04 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more

57%

level

22%

Wuhan Zall scores more

21%

Beijing Guoan at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff