Beijing Guoan 0–3 Wuhan Zall: Result & Stats

Beijing Guoan

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Wuhan Zall

12/2/2020

FA Cup · Quarter-finalsKunshan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Beijing Guoan53%

×Draw23%

Wuhan Zall24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beijing GuoanExpected goals in this matchWuhan Zall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.13

Beijing Guoan

1.81

Wuhan Zall

1.13

Beijing Guoan creates 60% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

2.38

creates per match

1.25

1.00

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Beijing Guoan

2.38

Wuhan Zall

1.25

allows per match

Beijing Guoan

1.00

Wuhan Zall

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.00on par

Wuhan Zall+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

Wuhan Zall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw

76%

Beijing Guoan or Wuhan Zall

77%

Draw or Wuhan Zall

47%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

30%

Wuhan Zall wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

84%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

54%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

27%

Wuhan Zall 1+ goals

68%

Wuhan Zall 2+ goals

31%

Wuhan Zall 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

69%

Wuhan Zall (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Wuhan Zall away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 2.38 + Wuhan Zall defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.81

Wuhan Zall attack 1.25 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more

53%

level

23%

Wuhan Zall scores more

24%

Beijing Guoan at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff