Beerschot VA 2–1 Anderlecht: Result & Stats

Beerschot VA

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Anderlecht

10/18/2024

Jupiler Pro League · Round 11Olympisch Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Beerschot VA33%

×Draw25%

Anderlecht42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beerschot VAExpected goals in this matchAnderlecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.56

Beerschot VA

1.35

Anderlecht

1.56

Anderlecht creates 16% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 150 away

1.36

creates per match

1.39

1.74

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Beerschot VA

1.36

Anderlecht

1.39

allows per match

Beerschot VA

1.74

Anderlecht

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beerschot VA+0.00on par

Anderlecht+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beerschot VA ↓

Anderlecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Beerschot VA or draw

58%

Beerschot VA or Anderlecht

75%

Draw or Anderlecht

67%

Winning margin

Beerschot VA wins by 2+

15%

Anderlecht wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Beerschot VA 1+ goals

74%

Beerschot VA 2+ goals

39%

Beerschot VA 3+ goals

15%

Anderlecht 1+ goals

79%

Anderlecht 2+ goals

46%

Anderlecht 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Beerschot VA (draw refunded)

44%

Anderlecht (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beerschot VA at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.74 · 53 matches

Anderlecht away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.33 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beerschot VA attack 1.36 + Anderlecht defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Anderlecht attack 1.39 + Beerschot VA defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Beerschot VA scores more

33%

level

25%

Anderlecht scores more

42%

Anderlecht at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Anderlecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff